Abstract:

Crop diversification is the most important risk management strategy. It reduces the risk of total crop failure and provides the alternate means of improving the living standard by generating income. Moreover, it enables the farmers’ to grow surplus products for sale at market. Increased production from varied cropping pattern and increased production stability are the probable explanation for improved income as a result of crop diversification technique. The present study employed Tobit model to identify the factors that drive households’ decision to diversify crops and the level of crop diversification stimulated by the decision to diversify in the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The study revealed  that education, experience of household head, availability of irrigation are played a positive and significant role to diversify cropping pattern, while distance of market and age of household head are negatively impacted.

Key Words:  Risk, Management, Diversification, Agriculture, Tobit model.

___________________________________________________

Introduction

Agriculture is the primary sector of economy and hence basis of supply of food for the human population. It is one of the most important human occupations, its origin dating back to the Neolithic Revolution. In fact, engagement in farming activities is considered the beginning of human civilization and an experience in group living. It has held a crucial place in the economy and culture of Jammu and Kashmir State. It plays very important role for the development of state’s economy. It is vital for food and nutritional security. It can contribute to spurring of growth, reducing poverty and sustaining the environment. State is endowed with varied agro-climatic conditions or geo-features thus different regions has its own cropping pattern, growing a variety of horticulture crops like fruits, vegetables, plantation crops, floriculture etc which determine their productivity profits. Apart from this, well known spices like saffron and black Zeera are also cultivated in some pockets of the state (Majid Hussain, 2003). Though climate change and variability is major threat to agricultural development and extensively it influences the agriculture at large. The improved agricultural technologies are not alone a measure research success rather deteriorating crop yields, increased agricultural risks, diminishing soil fertility and environmental degradation are the main challenges that must be held for yielding good research results. This continues to threaten societal goals of improving food, income and nutrition security which are the foundation elements of sustainable and productive farming system. Moreover, owing to its peculiar topography, rugged terrain, extreme weather conditions etc, the state has suffered a lot on account of agriculture development. Agricultural risks are exacerbated by a variety of factors, ranging from climate change and variability, frequent natural disasters, uncertainties in yields and prices, weak rural infrastructure, imperfect markets and lack of financial services including limited span and design of risk mitigation instruments such as crop diversification technique, credit and insurance. Therefore, significant agriculture transformation in the state is essential to hold out for the emerging challenges.

The introduction of crop diversification is not a new agricultural practice but climate change has made it popular as it significantly reduces its risks associated with agriculture and hence improves soil fertility, generates sufficient employment and increase farm income etc. Crop diversification can be introduced through rotation, inter-cropping and is the technological approach of climate supported smart agricultural practice that help the households to overcome these challenges.

Crop diversification is a risk management strategy for the farming community and an important step for poverty alleviation and transition from subsistence to commercial agriculture. It is also observed as one of the most environmentally viable, cost effective and balanced way of reducing uncertainties’ in agriculture. Crop diversification as a best strategy has achieved important societal goals like immense crop productivity, farm income etc. It plays vital role in fighting against diseases, pests and also suppresses the weeds, volunteer crops and more importantly it reduces probability of total crop failure. Crop diversification besides increasing production, improving crop yield and increasing income has direct influence on food availability and nutrition. Moreover, crop diversification allows more efficient utilization of agro-ecological processes, increase farm income which in turn improves the purchasing power of the households (Chand Ramesh, 1999).

Crop diversification is considered as important agriculture practice which on the one hand, helps the cultivators to improve farm income, reduce risks associated with agriculture, improves food security and on the other hand, provides more diversified food items to the consumers (Deshpande, et al., 2007). The prominent arguments in favour of diversification are to increase farm income, generate additional employment, and stabilize farm income overtime and to conserve natural resources (Sharma, 2007). The overall benefits of crop diversification mostly in agricultural ridden areas is to tackle the problems of unemployment which is becoming the burden for every society and that too becomes a hurdle for the most countries to develop.

Against this back drop, the focus of this study is on an agriculturally developed and advanced region, Jammu and Kashmir, with an aim to help farmers to have more income by reducing their dependence on outside sources instead helping them for adopting the new measures of diversification which will help in promoting the export alternative.

Research Methodology

Research methodology is the procedure to systematically solve the research issue. It is a way, structure, method for examination conceived so as to get replies to the research inquiries. The present study utilizes primary sources of data for evaluation and analysis. Moreover, present study is purely empirical in nature and is mainly concerned with in-depth investigation of farmers’ decision- making process relating to determinants that force the farmers to diversify their crops. In this regard, this study has analysed the factors which determine the probability of farmer’s decision to diversify in Jammu and Kashmir.

For the present study, multi-stage cluster sampling method was adopted to select final units of population. Anantnag, Shopian, Kulgam, Reasi, Rajouri and Udhampur were purposively selected on the basis of maximum cultivator population. Before collecting the formal survey, the structured interview schedule was pre-tested by interviewing 30 farmers to generate clarity, validity and also sequence.   

Moreover, in order to obtain a proper sample size Krijcie-Morgan formula is used. A sample size of 380 was obtained through this method. This Sample size has been distributed among different districts (Anantnag, Shopian, Kulgam, Reasi, Rajouri and Udhampur) for survey on the basis of their proportion of cultivators from these zones.

However, Tobit regression was applied to analyse covariates of crop diversification and its intensity. The variable used to measure crop diversification is a modification of the Simpsons index that lies strictly between zero and one. The diversity index is censored because some of its values cluster at the limit (i.e, 0 for complete specialization or 1 for perfect diversification). Thus for this reason, it is not appropriate to use a classical regression model for this purpose. Hence, opting for other econometric model- censored regression model.

Censored regression model refers to a model in which we observe the dependent variable only if it is above some cut off level. Tobit model is a special case of censored regression models that arise when the dependent variable is limited (or censored) from above and/or below. It is a non-linear model which employed maximum likelihood estimation technique which estimates the likelihood of crop diversification and its intensity. This model is appropriate since the dependent variable is an index which takes values between 0 and 1 inclusive. The dependent variable of the model can be either left-censored, right censored, or both left censored and right censored, where the lower and/or upper limit of the dependent variable can be any number. The standard Tobit model can be defined as follows for observation (farmer) that is:

Yi*=Xiβ+μi

Yi=Y*TyififY*Y*>≤TT

In this Tobit model we assumed T= 0 (zero) i.e. the data are censored at 0. Thus, we have

Yi=Y*0ififY*Y*>≤00

Where, u ~ N (0,Σ2 ), X and β are vectors of explanatory variables and unknown parameters, respectively. The y* is a latent variable and y is the debit amount. In the present study we use the functional form of the censored tobit model as below:

SID= β0+ β1AEG+β2SEX+β3EDU+β4EXP+β5MRTD+β6FARMSIZE+β7IRRI+β8MACH+μi

Where

SID= Value of Simpson Diversification Index         

AGE = Age of household head (year)

SEX = Sex of household head (male-1, female-2)

EDU = Education of household head (Level)

EXP = Experience in cropping of household head (Year)

MRTD = Distance of market (Km)

FARMSIZE = Farm Size (cultivated area in Kanal)

IRRI = Dummy for irrigation (if yes=1 otherwise=0)

MACH = Dummy for Own Machinery (if yes=1 otherwise=0)

β_0, β_1-7 and µ_i are constant, regression coefficients and error terms respectively.

Results and Discussion

Agriculture is the most important industry of the people in the State of Jammu and Kashmir. It plays a very prominent role in its economic development and in removing rural poverty. Agriculture has always been one of the key occupations that serve mankind, both in terms of livelihood and employment.

Table 1: Cropping pattern of Jammu and Kashmir

Source: Land use statistics 2016-17, Directorate of Economics & Statistics, Govt; of J & K.

Crop diversification in any particular geographical area is based on the changing social, economic, technological, geographical and institutional structure of that region. Major underlying factors which are conceived to be of great importance in determining the allocation of land resources among competing crops are prices and yields of different crops, level of irrigation, availability and variation of other agricultural inputs (pattern of agricultural implements, varieties of seeds, synthetic fertilizer etc.) and geographical characteristics of the respective region. Moreover, we can say that Crop diversification is impacted by various variables such as age, occupation, gender, family size, experience, educational qualification, farm size, irrigation, farm machinery, access to fertilizer, soil fertility, seed quality, road length etc.